No choice else UMNO will fix you

This protest which Anwar called is unavoidable. If PR don't press the government on this and try to shape the future to their favor, UMNO is definitely coming to fix you with all the powers of the government at their disposal.

I am not familiar with Malaysian politics and the unknown unknowns could trip up my analysis. I imagine Malaysians had seen the extraordinary transformation of Penang under a DAP government and so strongly backed them and the PR to the degree that even urban Malay Malaysians had also bought into.

The way for Najib to neuter the Chinese is to fix the DAP. He already said as much to that effect. Once they are not represented politically they are no longer a force. Of course that is tempting them and many Malays too to resort to drastic measures. Many of these angry people were not even born during the race riots of 1969. They are not cowed. They will test the limits.

Malaysians need to reclaim their country from the rapacious and self serving elites in UMNO. This is a fight for survival. UMNO would be most happy to see the Chinese disappear from Malaysia if that were possible but the brain drain is too slow. Any talent shortfall could be replaced with apolitical expats as 'greedy' Malays cannot be trusted. In fact there is a working model they could use - the oil rich sheikdoms of the Middle East. Of course I am speculating wildly for the long term. The rise of China might give them pause. As Zheng He long ago sailed south and intervene in the politics of these small states, what is to restrain China from doing the same to protect the Chinese even if they do not fully recognize them as such. India would not bat an eyelid for overseas Indians but a militarily and economically powerful China with a GDP equal to the USA is another matter. It will become a matter of Chinese pride especially when they are even projecting their naval power to your shores. UMNO might find that it will need a Chinese partner more than they need her because there isn't enough time or way to practically drive out all the 'ungrateful' Chinese as China rises. This scenario is probably only a decade away.

My point? UMNO is yesterday. MCA belongs to the past. Their moment to recreate themselves for the future has slipped away. MCA is already going down into the grave but UMNO is going to fight this to the bitter end. They believe they could keep their sweet spot forever and extract the national wealth for themselves, but the world and Malaysians changed and is pulling the carpet under their feet.

All these are just speculation. It is not for forecasting what is coming but framing the driving forces in order to understand events as they unfold. I expect to mercilessly battle confirmation bias and revise my framework many times. E.g., Consensus point to a rapidly ascendant China but that is not a foregone conclusion.

I wonder if China has sent their congratulations to Najib and BN for 'winning' this election.


Update: May 9 10am

Najib's big transaction before going for elections by Bloomberg. So clumsy and shameless, so easy to find evidence.

Update: May 9 5:45pm

Just heard over the radio that they plan to charge the speakers of last night rally for sedition.

Update: May 9 9pm

The WSJ reporting for the global business reader have a very different perspective of last night rally. They seemed to have side stepped the issue of democracy and government corruption. We should not be surprised because as Kofi Anan had also pointed out, such practices are par for the course especially in the developing world. It is good and right Malaysians aspire to a higher standard of governance. In fact given how Penang is run under the DAP, they are probably aiming for the Singapore standard of clean government.

In the end even from a newbie like me, the WSJ lost the plot here. A good article should help readers anticipate what is coming. This is far more than a personal feud between two big time politicians. The people want Bersih and Ubah. Let me go and see if the Economist has another perspective.