Confusing Cancer Statistics

You can look at ST decision to ask this question in two ways.

1. They are dumb and that's what some have criticized them as.
2. They are taking an opportunity to educate albeit in a provocative fashion.

I hope it is the latter.

Most people cannot think and reason with statistics properly. Daniel Kahneman has plenty of evidence on this score laid out in a layman friendly in "Thinking Fast and Slow". If ST is aware of this fact, then I think it is point 2 which motivated them., otherwise the one who put it up is well, like most people.

In the 39 responses I have seen, only one person gets it, i.e., not confusing the individual with the population. It is wrong to compare Jolie's 87% to the population 5 to 7%. She fell into the 5 to 7% but once in that group her chance of developing cancer is 87%. I am amazed they could pin the probabilities with such precision. I think the SD must be huge.