Thursday, March 14, 2013

Calming, not collapsing the housing market

I suppose this opinion piece would be widely read. My take is that it is just examining how the room might look like as you arrange the furniture in various ways. Every configuration has its pluses and minuses. To me KBW is just trying to educate the public by getting them to discover and learn the hard truths of housing. At the end of the conversation, he hope they would be more reasonable.

Policy options are sensitive to the environment. If we are living through a recession and low property prices now, so many solutions which are politically suicidal become viable. High prices is a huge headache but we can be sure prices must come down; we only do not know when.

If I were him, I would just endeavor to stay alive until the rain pours. The take away which Niall Ferguson in his book, "The Ascent of Money" peppered with many examples in his chapter, "Safe as Houses" tells us that asset enhancement schemes using your live-in houses invariably come to grief.

Just as Lincoln said, "You can fool some of the people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time", there is corollary for investing too. It could go, "Some people can get rich all the time, and everyone can be reach some of the time, but not everyone can be rich all the time". Therefore asset enhancement in trying to make everyone rich all of the time is eventually doomed to fail. It is imperative that we de-link housing from asset appreciation. This will end badly if the market and politics involuntarily end it for us. God forbid, but we could use a recession now.

Related: Sleepless over possible HDB price reduction


1 comment:

  1. The economy, just like prices, cannot go on an upward trajectory all the time. It has to pause, correct the excesses and then carry on. In a capitalist system, a recession now and then is actually a good thing as it forces the dead wood to exit and the complacent to buck up. It knocks reality into people's expectations and reminds them that the gravy train do not go on forever. It also gives a chance for some to get off their high horses.

    ReplyDelete