Sunday, January 27, 2013

PE By Election: Now that the results are out

I was up at 5am. Before long I was checking mail on my iPad and surprised that Bertha Henson would stayed up to write up on this by election. I didn't sleep till past midnight but I suppose many had kept up longer before turning in. It was hard to read her article when the eyes were still unused to the brightness. Most times, I check my mail on the S3 which is easier on the eyes. 

So did I predict the outcome correctly? I suggested why Koh Poh Koon would lose. Then I thought how his chances might have increased because of his conversion to the 'dark side'. But most important I wrote that I wasn't interested in what I predict but to see and hear what the voters want and read their message accurately. 

Now I quote myself in a Jan 23rd post, 'Why I think Koh Poh Koon will lose'

At the end of the day, I am not as much interested if Koh Poh Koon or Lee Li Lian wins as what it tells me about the voters of PE and to what extend it is true of the rest of tiny Singapore. I would be more optimistic about our future if the WP wins this round. It would show the maturity and wisdom of the voters. I am not sure this will happen because even a veteran newspaper person like Bertha Henson fails to recognize or understand Low Thia Khiang's shrewd strategy. I thought she looked at the whole issue too superficially. 

When the results were announced last night, there was a roar of joy in my neighborhood. It sounded like the Lions had scored a goal in some soccer match. Read Bertha Henson, she describes it much better than I ever could. 

A good conceptual framework to understand  (remember frameworks have limits!) the PAP loss coincidentally happened to be found in a book that I am currently half way through. See 'Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad' It will explain why the PAP will continue to lose support. The way the PM had responded on how he intend to press on his national plans pretty much point in that direction. 

A screenshot from the book.

The PAP government is making policies in the moral equivalent of the top right corner but voters are living in the moral equivalent of the bottom left corner. A sure vote loser. Prepare to yield more constituencies to the WP in the next GE if you fail to be where voters are. 

Sorry, I haven't made myself as clear as I would have like to. I think this post might attract a lot of readers because a couple of related posts had attracted thousands. Had I not been reading this book, I would perhaps explain myself better but that would demand more effort and I am a lazy writer blogging for myself. 

I had expected to be wrong about this by election and that is the only thing I am sure I got right. Some readers might disagree but that is my evolving secret to be profitable. People should start worrying about interest rates. 

Update: 6:50am

I just came from reading Chua Mui Hoong at Singapolitics. I quote her to illustrate why I say the PAP lives in the top right of the graph above. 

The PAP government even timed the announcement of billion-dollar projects to boost public transport, healthcare, and parenthood incentives during the campaign week. It has also tried to tackle issues of housing, immigration and transport that angered voters in 2011.
All that appeared to have little impact on voters.

Confidence and trust in the PAP have seriously eroded. They want to see improvement now. Asking them to wait is non sequitur when you have had so many broken promises. To add insult to injury the PAP wouldn't eve admit something as basic as this! Carry on with your vote losing plans. Meanwhile the WP is beefing up their bench of talent in a hurry. The PAP goes talent hunting but I suspect talent is knocking on WP's door. As my friend messaged me, the white clouds are clearing for the blue sky. 

Update: 7:15am

I love this line from Low Thia Khiang and I believe many Singaporeans too.

Aware of the possible heightened expectations, WP chief Low Thia Khiang told reporters that the party is prepared to assist the PAP-led Government in working harder to improve life for Singaporeans.

As I have repeated myself ad nausem in many posts to this blog. It was as simple as showing voters that Singaporeans and not just Singapore in the abstract is number one. Unlike the PAP, their party is their number one. 

1 comment:

  1. I feel that LTK is a game master who plays his game well,or else how did he make it so far?