I do not know how this will play out. This is high stakes. The cost-benefit equation will be changing. What truly mattered here are the interests of China and the USA. South Korea has to be astute and adroit at managing and navigating all these. Beyond the Chinese and the Americans the primary players are the Japanese and Russians.
Kim Jong Un is itching to play with the big boys. I wonder if he is really up to it when adults get onto the act for real. Bear in mind this kid is going to do what his late grand father and father had cautiously avoided.
There are no useful mad men to consult on how to deal with Kim Jon Un. We will have to anticipate him based on the world's history books.
Actually the north Korean are bad not mad. Regime survival is of utmost importance to them. Going to war or using nuke means destroying their only goal. Having a nuke is a way of keeping the regime alive and bargaining chip if the worst happen. Also think of this as a way of keeping internal control although I have no idea how useful it will be.
ReplyDeleteKim Jong Un is probably just continuing what had been proven time and again to benefit his forefathers and family i.e., take advantage of how US and South Korea dread for war.
DeleteThat is just another way of me saying if a glass was half full and now talking it as half empty. I wanted to present it as he will eventually lose when thus far he is having his cake and eat it. This is going to be a Black Swan for him in the end. After endlessly feeding the turkey, they will slaughter it for Thanksgiving. That is where Kim Jong Un will likely end up. He is getting fatter every year isn't he? Just look at photos of him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-missile-programs-rational.html?_r=0
DeleteThanks for sharing the NYT article. I would be wary of getting trapped in labels and models trying to understand North Korea. Who understands that Obama's "strategic patience" was born out of pragmatic necessity from a war wary America? I ran with that idea and wrote my blog post.
DeleteThat article is summing up ideas from people with no skin in the game. Who is so foolish to entertain a plan or strategy which eventually leads to their demise. If Pyongyang is rational then the whole idea of a nuclear arsenal is not to use it as simply any strategy that result in the demise of your country is by the definition of these political scientists irrational. Then the danger is not strategy but accidental nuclear war.
I agree with you that there is always a chance of black swan event. If you look the south china sea issue, the same problem actually faces the ccp as well.
DeleteActually the north Korean are bad not mad. Regime survival is of utmost importance to them. Going to war or using nuke means destroying their only goal. Having a nuke is a way of keeping the regime alive and bargaining chip if the worst happen. Also think of this as a way of keeping internal control although I have no idea how useful it will be.
ReplyDelete