Monday, September 12, 2016

North Korea: Jong Il to Jong Un from strategist to madman

Full story by Reuters.

Kim Jong Un's father inked a deal with China to build this bridge to foster closer commercial ties between the two countries in 2010. I assume if he hadn't died there would have been more business between China and North Korea. At the same time there would be no accelerated development of ballistics missiles and nuclear weapons. The son is quite different from the father. Given his youth and the idol worship he receives I am afraid he is also irrational from a warped sense of reality. If we go by historical examples of fatuous monarchs in Asia then his expanding waistline offer tangible evidence for us to guess what the other sides of his life might be like simply from human nature. He is certainly no wise philosopher king because he hasn't got the character of one. I am afraid the Kim family might finally have produced a madman running the show who believes he can win a nuclear war. A madman is not interested to just rule North Korea, he would want to subjugate the South as well and all that is needed is to find an excuse to act.

The Chinese must consider if they should invade North Korea before it is too late. Any action by the US, South Korea and Japan would set off a wider conflict. Surely the Chinese does not want a US ally at its door step when they loose North Korea as a Communist buffer. The problem is if the Chinese military is up to the task. I am afraid they are only good looking on paper but not in real life. Why test and reveal the truth before you are ready.

We have a rapidly developing problem. I don't think Kim Jong Un is targeting the capability to deliver nuclear tipped missiles by 2020. It could happen sooner. That is why the US THAAD has to be in South Korea soon.

With Kim Jong Un in charge, the most benign scenario is to keep up a high stake arms race with North Korea until they find it unsustainable. Then they could either remain moribund as a much diminished threat or God forbid collapse within. The most frightening outcome is Kim Jong Un turned out to be a madman and went ahead to launch a nuclear war. At that time we better hope the THAAD works perfectly. Of course a devastating conventional war would immediately follow. Back to my point the Chinese must liberate North Korea as the least worst outcome in order to prevent a shooting war with the Americans, which if it were to happen, where would it stop?



    1. Thanks for the link but to me the writer have forgotten something of utmost importance. The Chinese would never allow North Korea to collapse and they can ensure that by always providing enough energy and food. The writer should not have missed that but what do you expect from academics whom Nassim Taleb is fond of pointing out that they have no skin in the game?