Monday, August 17, 2015

Lessons from retiring PAP MPs


I agree with Han Fook Kwang that Lui Tuck Yew's quitting politics portends more than just a minister resigning. Just look a little further. There was a time when MPs leave because they were told by their secretary general they need to make way for new blood. Now more than a handful MPs are telling us they need to spend more time with their families or their other job need which they have neglected need them.

The MP calling has become a full time job. As some like Baey Yam Kheng, Tin Pei Ling and Foo Mee Har gave up their regular job to be full time MPs, some must gave up being MPs for their day job.

Lui Tuck Yew said that you need a tender heart and thick skin to be in politics. More than ever this is true here. But a thick skin does not mean you don't feel the hurt from the barbs people hurt at you. In fact if you have a tender heart it will hurt like hell. Thick skin isn't tough skin at all just as courage is not the absence of fear. It is just refusing to give in to hitting back or running away when every fibre in you scream at you to. On top of feeling hurt if you have to bear the hurt the spouse and children will also feel on your behalf. It is going to be much harder to find people to come into politics unless you do not mind sociopaths. Such kinds with great acting skill will con many. There will be many such types in the election after this one. It spells great danger for us.

Over the last few days I decided it was fruitless to speculate on the reasons for Lui quitting politics. It is easier to just note the non true reasons and let time reveal the truth. Let's see what he does after he has left the PAP.

At this rate the pressure is to produce an outcome where from the PAP side people come in to serve as MP/minister for two or three terms and leave. They will also not think and plan on a generational timescale like LKY had but over ten to twenty years. Given our small size and vulnerabilities the risk of us not surviving goes up by orders of magnitude. Conceptually for a small state you achieve the equivalent mass and push of a large state by acting early after seeing what is developing over the horizon. We are not like America, a large excavator which can be moved into position at short notice and start working. We are ants and we need to know way ahead of time where to show up and start working. If we do that right we punch way above our size. In fact that is the only way we could.







1 comment:

  1. Well said on this : "Conceptually for a small state you achieve the equivalent mass and push of a large state by acting early after seeing what is developing over the horizon. We are ants and we need to know way ahead of time where to show up and start working. If we do that right we punch way above our size. In fact that is the only way we could."

    Unfortunately, I think we are already too late and have lost our way in the last 10-20 years. Whatever had propelled us forward thus far had been singularly attributable to the Old Guards and their strategy. Today, we're just repeating that formula in a drastically changed environment, while at the same time foolishly embracing the worst excesses of capitalism. In brief :

    1) Our economic strategy remains primarily MNC centred. Works well in the 60's, 70's & 80's when China the elephant was absent. Don't work so well today. Which part of the smartphone ecosystem chain are we now in? None.

    2) To compensate and make ourselves remain attractive to foreign MNCs, our primary value proposition is "still low cost" and "tax advantages". Which is why the floodgates to FTs must remain open so that at any time, there's someone who's faster, better, hungrier willing to work for a lower pay than locals.

    3) Among major Asian economies, we have the highest degree of REIT-fication. We embraced this trend without realising the tremendous social cost it extracts. Today, the industrial property market is cornered by a few REITS who are duty bound to keep increasing rental so that shareholder value is constantly created. Again, to compensate for high rents, low labor costs become inevitable.

    Forget about crystal ball gazing capability. The attention to details, which is such a hallmark of the Old Guard, is missing in today's leaders. What went wrong with SMRT is just symptomatic of what is visible to the eye. Not so visible, but no less neglected, are the foundations of our economy and total defence. On the latter, we continue the Old Guard's philosophy of mandatory NS and cutting edge technology. But the underpinnings of society glue is already being gradually eroded with high FT influx. ie. our Total Defence. In the event of the threat of war, who is going to drive the bus or trains that will transport the people to their camps? Who will repair the roads? Yes, housing ownership may have increased a person's will to defend his home in the event of war but what if he is already taking on 20 year mortgage, at risk of losing his job and seeing his mortgage going underwater? What's the internal risk like to have <50% Singaporeans in our population?

    The SMRT breakdowns is just the tip of the iceberg. We celebrated our SG50 Jubilee and congractulated ourselves that we remain an oasis of relative calm in today's turbulent world. But these are largely due to the lingering benefits from the Old Guard's policies. There are already visible cracks in our foundations. We are not solving them, let alone hoping to find the people who can peer into the crystal ball over the next 20-30 years.

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