Sunday, December 4, 2016

韬光养晦 over revealing Goujian (勾踐)

Han Fook Kwang analysis is far from complete. You cannot discuss China and Singapore over the Straits issue and the South China Sea without adding America.

Just like Goujian who inspired generations of Chinese power plays, China has stopping biding her time (韬光养晦) and revealed its true character since the ascent of Xi Jinping.

I felt she has shown her true character too soon and if the mercurial Trump made a naval stand which Obama never would have there would be war and the CCP will have to think how to survive this because the PLA at this point is too weak to score victories.

The strategies the Chinese had used to engage Obama would not work with Trump. That was why Wang Yi had initially played down the significance of the Trump-Tsai phone meeting and called it a cheap Taiwanese gimmick. The familiar markers we used for navigating this tricky relationship between the two biggest powers have disappeared and we need to figure a way forward. Missteps would be very costly for Singapore. Fan Li would have left quietly and start a new life far from Goujian but real estate even if it is just a rock out of the waters have no legs for running to safety. If the US  and China are mad enough to quarrel with each other we will be forced to take a side. In other words I hope the 93-year old Kissinger succeeds behind the scene to ensure the two sides get along.

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