Friday, June 17, 2016

2049: Impatience is China's gravest weakness

2049 is the centennial of the founding of the CCP. A lot of what China has been doing becomes clear when you work backwards what China need to sew up by that year.

The Chinese are perhaps the proudest people in the history of humankind. Everyone saves them are barbarians. By 2049 it doesn't just hope but wants to displace America as the number one power in the world. If that means it cannot rise peacefully, so be it. Diplomacy is too slow for China, so strong arms is the way to go. Just as well since China's behavior will stop controversy about whether her intentions are peaceful or not. It isn't.

Talking to China is now a waste of time. Same words different interpretations get nobody anywhere. Meanwhile they just carry on with what they want to do with those little dots in the South Sea.

But China is not ready to confront the US or a united front including Japan, India and the rest of Asia. Russia will watch and behave opportunistically even as the Indians also watch how Russia and Pakistan play it out in their corner. America will tilt the balance and as long as there is a will, easily done. China impatience has caused her to show her cards before she is strong enough to protect them. She can score early successes but she can't go very far. It would have been a lot more practical to not think of 2049 but 2149. Everyone would be happier. China is underestimating America's will to defend her interests in the Pacific. The Chinese never understood the Americans well enough and failed to heed LKY's warning not to count them as a spent force. The Chinese are simply too proud and impatient which will force ASEAN to find partners to gang up against them to bring a balance of power to the region. Look around there are no lack of partners. Remember it is inconvenient but not impossible for the original founding ASEAN states to deal with Cambodia and Laos.

Link to article at Today

Update: June 18 3:20 pm

Quoting from Who is Xi?

Xi’s stated goal is for China to achieve “a moderately prosperous society” (xiaokang shehui) by the hundredth anniversary of the Party’s founding in 2021, and “a socialist modernized society” (shehuizhuyi xiandaihua shehui) by the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the P.R.C. in 2049.

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