Monday, May 2, 2016

SG future: Like Taiwan now?

Nothing new or earth shaking about Taiwan here but here is an example for us to avoid. One of the reasons they can't find good people to be ministers appears in the  highlighted text quoted below.

Mr Lin, for instance, said he had approached many experienced industrialists to head the economic affairs
portfolio – a critical one given the ailing economy–but was turned down. Explains Dr Niu: “People with high social standing don’t want to be in government because they are unable to cross the blue-green divide.
Also, they are often attacked by the legislators who show little respect for the ministers.” The blue-green divide refers to the political schism in Taiwan between the pro-unification (blue) and pro-independence (green) camp.

Sounds remarkably like a LKY warning.

The Taiwan way is how but how do we keep ministers honest? Not just financially and morally but intellectually as well. Our long term story would be if this place is able to nurture and surface the right leaders to lead us. The international and historical track record is not good but that is besides the point, we are already here.

What I know is this, that the PAP will put itself ahead of Singapore. They like to think the two objectives are the same, at least in private but they are not. Eventually they will face the political equivalent of the Innovator's Dilemma, then what? Then you have to cannibalize yourself ensure a future for this place. Will they do it? Watch how Tim Cook is not able to do that at Apple. Consider how time and again Steve Jobs had done that for Apple. Look at what happened to Nokia. If it had disrupted itself by retiring its phones sooner especially when they were already ahead of Apple with smart phones, but they can't resist not milking for the last drop of milk for all it is worth.

Taiwan is delusional, it is going to keep sliding down until it is irrelevant. China is irresistible and they are caught in its inexorable gravity.

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