Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Geopolitical consequences of MH17
Link to NYT article.
I thought it was very simple minded thinking to talk about the return of the Cold War. That image is totally inappropriate because the conditions for returning to that no longer exist other than the Russians possessing too many nukes.
But the shape of the new permafrost in relations between the Russia and the West could be taking shape from the way which the Russians are retaliating against the sanctions coming on the them. None of these would have happened if they had not accidentally shot down MH17. When that happened we lose control of the situation and it now run itself on a dangerous dynamic. It was untenable not to respond to the downing of MH17 and the Russians would not bear to lose face without retaliating on sanctions against them. I am always afraid when nations are prepared to cut the nose to spite the face. This is the sort of prideful actions that leads to war. A similar dynamic could be incubating on our side of the world between China and Japan.
This situation bears very careful watching as it has the potential to destroy every assumption on how we are investing and running our economies.
Posted by PengYou at 9:09 PM