History may not be knowledge. It is perhaps an illusion of knowledge. We could very well be deceiving ourselves when filled with historical insight we interpret our present and extrapolate into the future.
We shall always remain skeptical and test our insight at every chance with experiments, traps and at worse, observations.
If the Theories of Change gleaned from historical insights are correct, they must be able to achieve two outcomes. (1) Explain the details and (2) Forecast the future. Immediately the experienced person knows that almost all our theories are badly flawed. What we have is just a broken compass. It points the way ahead very roughly and as we travel, we have to make continuous adjustments.
George Yeo displays an impressive grasp of history and how it explains the present. And it is just that: Impressive and nothing more.