Sunday, September 13, 2015

GE 2015: Who was out of touch?

During the hustings, a friend sent me the following. He didn't realized what he got were GE estimated betting outcomes, likely used by bookies to guide their bets.

I took a quick look, paying special attention to East Coast GRC.

Radin Mas SMC: PAP-67.2%, RP-31.2%, Independent-1.6% (PAP wins)
Bukit Batok SMC: PAP-62.9%, SDP-36.9%, Independent-0.2% (PAP wins)
MacPherson SMC: PAP-59.3%, WP-39.6%, NSP-1.1% (PAP wins)
Ang Mo Kio GRC: PAP-79.4%, RP-20.6% (PAP wins)
Aljunied GRC: WP-60.9%, PAP-39.1% (WP wins)
Sembawang GRC: PAP-58.4%, NSP-41.6% (PAP wins)
Bishan- Toa Payoh GRC: PAP-60.6%, SPP-39.4% (PAP wins)
Pasir Ris -Punggol GRC: PAP-77.4%, SDA-22.6% (PAP wins)
Hong Kah North SMC: PAP-61.3%, SPP-38.7% (PAP wins)
Bukit Panjang SMC: PAP-65.1%, SDP-34.9% (PAP wins)
Fengshan SMC: PAP-45.8%, WP-54.2% (WP wins)
Hougang SMC: WP-65.4%, PAP-34.6% (WP wins)
Mountbatten SMC: PAP-56.4%, SPP-43.6% (PAP wins)
Pioneer SMC: PAP-67.6%, NSP-32.4% (PAP wins)
Potong Pasir SMC: PAP-45.1%, SPP-54.9% (SPP wins)
Punggol East SMC: WP-66.9%, PAP-33.1% (WP wins)
Sengkang West SMC: PAP-45.8%, WP-54.2% (WP wins)
Yuhua SMC: PAP-63.9%, SDP-36.1% (PAP wins)
Jurong GRC: PAP-68.7%, SingFirst-31.3% (PAP wins)
Marine Parade GRC: PAP-54.2%, WP-45.8% (PAP wins)
Nee Soon GRC: PAP-60.3%, WP-39.7% (PAP wins)
Tampines GRC: PAP-74.4%, NSP-25.6% (PAP wins)
Tanjong Pagar GRC: PAP-61.2%, SingFirst-38.8% (PAP wins)
Chua Chu Kang GRC: PAP-71.8%, PPP-28.2% (PAP wins)
East Coast GRC: PAP-46.2%, WP-53.8% (WP wins)
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC: PAP-58.7%, SDP-41.3% (PAP wins)
West Coast GRC: PAP-68.6%, RP-31.4% (PAP wins)
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC: PAP-70.2%, SDP-29.8% (PAP wins)
Jalan Besar GRC: PAP-58.1%, WP-41.9% (PAP wins)

OK, then I looked at Aljunied GRC and decided this cannot be given AHPETC finances must have persuaded some (who knows how many) to go over to the PAP but is not likely to cause those who voted PAP in 2011 to move to WP as such types would already have (those upset with PAP bullying tactics). Taking into consideration that the PAP had tried to listen to the ground and make amends in the last four years to suggest an increase vote count for WP in Aljunied GRC was irrational. I didn't look at the list again as by then I was wondering if it was even some fabrication. 

I saw the above today and wondered if Lim Swee Say and his comrades also had a similar list as I had received. 

Now I would like to record my thoughts on what might have happened. 

1. I didn't believe in a freak election outcome because the majority of oppo candidates from non-WP parties will not get enough support. 

2. I saw three scenarios like a sort of three-sided dice. (a) WP could gain further ground; (b) The PAP could achieve a landslide and finally (c) Looks like the outcome in 2011 but with a popular vote between 60 to 65% going to the PAP. That was what I prefer. I don't know what was likely. It was honestly impossible to tell even if you are very close to the ground. I was surprised at how cocksure some people were. Of course these are mostly the oppo supporters especially the WP. 

Related post: Vote PAP or Oppo?

LSS was right and wise to focus on what's right. I heard bits of his rally speeches and I felt in my gut that is the way to tell your story. Matters like these you cannot simply think, you have to feel as well. 

Who was out of touch? Everyone was out of touch but everyone was in touch with himself or herself and voted accordingly. Intelligent and informed they voted well. Never mind it was my feared 70% How the PAP responded in triumph had lessen my worry about them becoming arrogant. 

An important reason why it was impossible to predict which face will turn up in this 3-faced dice is that in this election people were far less emotional and more rational. When they felt strongly they expressed themselves stridently and you kind of know how they will vote. On the other hand when they are calm they want to keep their votes secret. Most were  acting in this way and it was quite clear to me. In 2011 many more friends were telling me how they would vote but not this time. 

Those who thought they knew the outcome of this election thought too highly of they powers of analysis. It was just not possible to get beyond pinning down three possible outcomes. 

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