Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Gundlach: Full impact of Fed action not over

Someone sent this to me and I thought isn't Gundlach simply pointing out the obvious? Tharman said as much yesterday too about MAS policy on the SGD. Central bank actions always create ripples for quite a while.

It is disturbing that people need to be reminded.

In my email reply I wrote,

Gundlach is prepared to let the market tell him what it wants. So many others are unaware that they are trying to impose their wills on the market. They confuse this with their wishing where their portfolios ought to be. It is an important sign bad things are already in the making. Living moment by moment they have no idea where all these are leading to. Irresponsible and dangerous. 

I wonder how much of this is just racing each other to the cliff. They only see who is winning or losing the race and not where they are going. 

Gundlach put it differently but he was referring to central banks than fund managers put in more graphically thus.

“sort of like a man who jumps out of a 20-story building, and after falling 18 stories, says, ‘So far, so good.’”

But I don't think he or anyone knows how tall that building is and how much left to go before hitting ground. You need two hands to clap. It wouldn't just be the major central banks that cause the next crisis. The other hand are the market participants. They are even more dangerous because they decide how fast they are falling as they race each other down.

Perhaps I ought to have used a fall from building metaphor as well in my email response for market participants.

Update: 2:25 pm

Have most likely at least gone past half of the building on the way down. Where in between midway to the bottom is hard to say. Also one should probably be looking at the debt supporting it than just where stock prices are.

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