Thursday, January 31, 2013

SG Land Use: The End of US

I got this from ST '5,600 hectares more land for bigger population: Land Use Plan'

As I moved my mouse pointer over those circles, it dawn on me that we are going to become one big construction site in a hurry. I find the prospect revolting.

I am not bothering to explain the reasons from Chaos and Complexity Science here but I know they are going to screw up. There will not be congestion everywhere but there will be bad and surprising jams ambushing us, i.e., poor quality of living. Everyone will have to carry a GPS or use the unit in their smart phone to constantly check traffic and prepare to re-route. Good luck if you are riding a bus, only cars have re-routing options. Now I am only foreseeing what's like with a limited imagination. It would be worse. Meanwhile the elites (riding in cars that re-route around congestions) will enjoy the lion share of the fruits but the hoi polloi will pay the price.

By the way, who is studying the water and energy needs of such an enlarged population?

I think the PAP government could be voted out mid way before this become reality. Also like I had written in an earlier post, what make them so sure if you build the FTs will come? We might, damn it, have to price ourselves down to get them in. The trouble with all these plans is that it extrapolates into the future. It is a sure way to get it wrong as over time there are bound to be discontinuities. There is no flexibility or wisdom behind the thinking that produce these plans.

This is a terrible plan that rewards and entrenches the bad low quality economic policies of the PAP government. It is an industrial age mindset of pumping more and more inputs to get growth instead of counting on innovation and creativity. This is the result of their long years of tight top down control of the economy. Innovation and creativity is bottom up.

This government doesn't understand any alternative strategy beyond first world goods and services at third world prices - Didn't I just say we might have to price down earlier on and aren't we already doing so now and depressing wages as a result? You can forget about work life balance. We will get the big population but the three promises of the Population White Paper will only be a mirage. Because if they try to pass on first world wages, like SIA we can't compete. Why should citizens support this?

This government will promise the sky but have us end up in tears and chanting the mantra of better, cheaper and faster or starve. Then we will get high growth (easily 6% or more because of the building works) better than their projection in the White Paper till 2030 but our best and brightest will leave faster than ever. Quitters will re-enter our lexicon eh? But they are smart to leave before it is too late. You don't get quality and vibrancy when you are competing on price.

Update: 2:15pm

Just found this on CNA, "2 new commercial belts to bring jobs closer to homes"

Sounds good on paper but in real life it doesn't work well unless the commercial belts are separated far enough to discourage executives, couriers on motorbikes etc., moving between belts and contributing immensely to off peak vehicular traffic. In bigger countries, you don't on a whim drive or fly from NY to Chicago. But we our small island people will be driving to and fro between these commercial belts. Sometimes the same people do more than one round trip even in a business day.

Also with our years of town planning experience to imagine that people will live near where they work is naive. You go where there is a suitable job and what is the chance that it would be near where you live? Secondary school students very often can't walk to their schools unlike primary ones because their PSLE T-scores invariably send them much farther away. Our planners are so wishful and theoretical. More likely just like AIMgate they never bother to think through this thoroughly. It is like some say, they have made up their mind to grow the population and are now looking for justifications. That's why their arguments look so weak.  They have hidden nefarious motives?

Update: 9:30pm

I talked about congestion in my main post and here is a concrete example. 6.9 million people will occasionally have a large proportion of them congregate at a spot....

  • Roy Tay Higher per capita GDP does NOT equate higher standard of living, if overcrowding & high cost of living persist... 

    One very good example: I can't bear to see the day when I can't even step foot into Chinatown during CNY festive season by 2030... No matter how many flats & railways the Govt build, it cannot channel crowds away from certain public places during festive, public holidays. Then what's the point of building Garden by the Bay, isn't it? Wake up before its too late, this immigration-led model is politically suicide for PAP.
    2 hours ago via mobile · Like · 7

Also look at how dishonest the picture from the PM's facebook page is. Can you imagine that there will be so few people? I think you can get his sometimes in 2030 as the occasional exception.



  1. You asked a good question. Not only who is looking at water/energy, who is looking at the food supply? We have no agricultural land where we grow our own food. If there were to be a food crisis, who gets what from where?
    When our earth ran out of animals we slaughter, clean water and herbicides plants everywhere, what do you eat? Can you have condo, cars or printed money as food? I am surprised no body is asking these long term questions. All they think about is space, crowdedness, competition, cars and houses!! And if 5m SG is currently spending 12% of our GDP on defence, what would 7m entails? 20% of our GDP? No wonder they are getting D+ grade for govt transparency index!! If this is the context and quality of the White paper, you really have to wonder what all those tax payers monies that has gone towards paying top scholars and sending them to ivy leagues training or courses have yielded us?

  2. The statistician Paul is the master of dark statistics,the specialist who makes the capitalists to cheer loudly and smile at our expense,plus the weak applause of some of our very stupidd are right,END OF US.

  3. The PM's admission for lack of 20/20 foresight is interesting. Here is a man who received one of the best, and most sophisticated educations the modern world has to offer - who studied in cambridge & Harvard earned firsts in his mathematics and was described by his distinguished tutor as one of the brightest mind that even LKY is proud to call it. And we are expected to believe that he cannot see beyond the complex logic? Is this supposed to endear PM lee to ordinary people ie. no highfalutin intellectual codswallop here?

    1. Since he lack 20/20 foresight in the past, why is he so sure that his vision 2030 is not a nightmare rather than a sweet dream?

    2. Lack of 20/20 foresight? He's lying, he knew what he was doing.

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  5. Why doesn't just take back all the golf courses and build HDB flats there? As the elites to go to JB or Batam to play golf. It is a much cheaper and faster alternative than land reclamation.

    That way, we can be sure that he is serving common Singaporeans rather than the elites.

  6. On this land use map, where are the nuclear plants? There were discussed a while back. What about desalination plants? Also, what would be our economy be like?

    With global warming and opening of sea-routes in Northpole, we would lose the top-tier trans-shipping hub. With Dubai and other regional air-hub, in particular, Bangkok, overtaking Changi, we would lose the top air-transit hub. Would we be able to be the financial hub, when China is going to be a bigger economy than US by 2030, and Hong Kong and Shanghai would take over as the top-tier financial hub. How about our many-years still-developing bio-medical hub? What changes of plan to move this? In manufacturing, what would we be left with, with emerging centre (after China) in Vietnam, Indonesia up and coming, expected to take the low-end from China. Are we left with just pharmaceutical manufacturing?

    You get the picture. I would like to see our vision for the economy and the economy growth plan. This would drive would education, skills building and development, infrastructure, re-structure, investment and many etc, of which population mix is only one component. Also, I would like to see our vision and plan for our social development too.

    An Observer.

  7. "As I moved my mouse pointer over those circles, it dawn on me that we are going to become one big construction site in a hurry. I find the prospect revolting."

    On the contrary. The day these constructions stand still, God forbid, will be the day our country begins to rot. A healthy state should always be improving and re-inventing itself.

    Quit the scare mongering please.

  8. "The trouble with all these plans is that it extrapolates into the future. It is a sure way to get it wrong as over time there are bound to be discontinuities. "

    Sure, and I'm will to bet the projected numbers will not be on the mark. So? What's your point? What's the alternative? What's *your* alternative? Sit around doing nothing and watch our nation's citizens decline to 40%... and *then* you say, "Whoops! Let's do something drastic about that.."? Seriously?

  9. @Raymond
    "On the contrary. The day these constructions stand still, God forbid, will be the day our country begins to rot. A healthy state should always be improving and re-inventing itself."
    Hehehe,you are watching the free show in Communist China where constructions never stop,better look at the fxxx worried faces of those stupid Communists,you think they are going to die very soon,HaHaHa,you enjoy yourself.

  10. Stupid Minister Khaw declaration"I plan it this way but I wish that it cannot be acheived",am we pay him how many million a year to "plan"?
    Only very stupid citizens do that,and only in red Dot.

  11. I have noticed the increase number of construction sites or road work or lift upgrading! Now, there will be more!
    I cannot imagine the pollution and the traffic hazards we are going to face!This is far from a liveable city.