Sunday, November 6, 2011

How did we get here?

These were from yesterday papers. I had decided not to write about them, but they keep sitting on my mind.

Whatever happened to the peace dividend that came with the collapse of Communism? Well the Clinton years saw rising prosperity. Here GCT had an easy time because he was lucky to be a Bull Market PM. Not so fortunate his successor LHL.

Alas, a big part of the prosperity for the rank and file weren't real. When the unwinding came, the leftovers weren't pretty. Specifically, most of the wealth was built on leverage. It is alright if you earn you way out, but in a world of polarized winners and losers, the winners were making money so much faster, and the process they employed so effective that the the 99% or
80% which segment you want to focus on couldn't keep up. Worse, as the juggernaut rolls on, many start to lose their jobs. For a while they could find new jobs but had to work harder. Single income families gave way to mostly double incomes households and now no income households or for those with jobs, it is getting harder to make ends meet.

Today we may be seeing the end of the the present prosperity paradigm, which when it first started we were told would not lead us to this point. The wealth was supposed to spread around more evenly. It is unnecessary to discuss why. It was pretty obvious but those who saw it coming couldn't do very much about it beyond writing and publishing their warnings.

Indeed the wealth must eventually get around or they will be destroyed. We will all be poorer for it.

The wealth would eventually be taxed away. Government will become more powerful. This is not a good development but any alternative is probably worse. Come to think of it, there is another more hopeful possibility, but people need to be patient. Keep markets free and not rigged, eventually through the process we have never grasped very well, free people will create new jobs as they keep trying to make tomorrow better for themselves. The most cohesive and resilient societies with enough patience and perseverance will out do the rest.

We will need new leaders too. Most of the current crop are not up to the task. They are disconnected from the people and worse, lack courage.

The age of the statesmen had passed, and I hope that age is returning again or we shall be staring into the abyss of another Dark Age.

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