Thursday, November 17, 2011

The EU: A Pretend Union

Perhaps it is no longer politically incorrect to call the EU a pretend union. This is certainly correct in substance. If it suits each, and if it is convenient they are Europeans otherwise they are Germans, French, Italians etc., No where is still clearer than with money.

You know a marriage is not that strong if spouses keep their finances separate. This is exactly the same with the member nations of the EU. For many years, lead by politicians and like a dog to a bone the markets and big business wore the flag of the yellow stars and blue flag. Everyone is happy with Europe as a work in progress and nobody really cared about the destination as long as they are all happy. Easy debt had made them happy. But debt must be repaid and that is now.

So why wouldn't they file for divorce eventually? Because going separate ways take courage. Also they are masters at self denial to the point that they have been eating their own propaganda for years. Like I had written before, much of Europe is theatre. Europeans want to be safe, but that is exactly where danger is. Safety comes from the courage to be free, but they fear risk.

In the end they might allow the ECB to print money as this is the least painful option. The Germans would hate this thoroughly but do they have the courage to go alone? France cannot hold hands with them. She may not even be able to keep her AAA rating.

I watch the Americans give up on Europe. Right now Obama is traveling in Asia. The American re-commitment to this region is unequivocally clear.

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