Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Is Dr. Tony Tan that good?

Dr. Tony Tan didn't look good in this blog post. Again and again it shows that so few people have foresight, nobody knows what tomorrow brings and we are apt to get it wrong. Those who got it right more often than not were just lucky. If you want a quicker trip to prove this thesis just look at the performance of participants in financial markets.

Before you decide that Tony Tan is the guy to elect as President, bear in mind that he has been packaged and presented to us as better than the evidence. This extends to LKY too. A friend working in SPH told me many years ago when LKY published his first books (before his memoirs); they dug out all his speeches to read and how often he was off the mark about the future. Sure, we got quite a few things right and we forgot to credit it to luck or God's grace. Now if we run out of luck or God withdraws his grace, we can put the best guys and girls on the job and it wouldn't matter. More humility please. The best farmers knows his fate depend on timely sun and rain, which he cannot forecast.

In the end, I would borrow from Abraham Lincoln, learn to be humble and worry about being on God's side than he on our side.


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